Lease Depreciation vs Actual Market Value

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Old 06-29-2016, 06:08 PM
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Lease Depreciation vs Actual Market Value

Porsche financial services publishes a residual on the Turbo S Cab around 52% for 3 years.

That means 2014 models should have a theoretical value of around $100K - $110K as 2017's have already started delivery.

However, all of the 2014's I've seen listed for sale are asking (and presumably getting) around $150K.

If the actual market value is so much higher than residual, why doesn't PFS change the residual? It would certainly make for a more affordable payment!
 
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Old 06-29-2016, 07:24 PM
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The residual is only important to the lessee.

Maybe dealers are listing 2014's at $150k with CPO but there is no way a private party would get that unless the car was perfect with only a few thousand miles.
 
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Old 06-29-2016, 08:02 PM
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most 2014's that I have seen including CPO'd vehicles are as low as $125-130K, Turbo S coupe with average 15-20K miles. 2015's are closer to the $140-150K mark but saw a few in the mid to high $130K range
 
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Old 06-30-2016, 09:07 AM
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Those are just asking prices-- the majority of those actual sales are for less. If PFS set their residuals too high they would take a bath in lease returns at the auction because no one would buy out their lease or be able to trade it in early. The pull thru program would fail as well. The most important thing in building a profitable lease finance company is setting the right residuals.


Plus I do believe PFS has residual insurance hence the MRM caps and thus cant over value them.
 
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Old 06-30-2016, 11:23 AM
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Got a formal quote from dealer today on a 2016 Turbo S Cabriolet. Residual is 49%!

Holy cow that's terrible! Especially considering real-world market value is closer to 60% to 65% after 3 years.

Dealer tried to explain that brands like Mercedes and BMW subsidize the residuals so lessees are never in a position of equity. It forces lessees to either keep the cars full term, or go back to the same brand to take advantage of a trade-up promotion.

Dealer claims Porsche prefers that lessees have a position of equity at all times so they can a) buy the car at term end so PFS doesn't get stuck with a bunch of auction cars, or b) lessee can trade to dealer and not feel like they got hosed.

Finally, dealer explained PCNA limits the number of cars to North America to keep demand high and supply somewhat limited.
 
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Old 06-30-2016, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by thor7000
most 2014's that I have seen including CPO'd vehicles are as low as $125-130K, Turbo S coupe with average 15-20K miles. 2015's are closer to the $140-150K mark but saw a few in the mid to high $130K range
Call me crazy, but I'm not seeing this. Maybe 1 low optioned, clapped out car in each category.
 
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Old 06-30-2016, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by trojanman
Finally, dealer explained PCNA limits the number of cars to North America to keep demand high and supply somewhat limited.
lol who does Porsche think they are, Ferrari

Porsche builds as many (if not more) 911's then they can sell. The Turbo model is probably the worst. So many sitting on dealerships for months/years. That's why the residual is low. It's an awesome all around car for serious performance enthusiasts who want literally the fastest car for under a $million but it's a car that anyone can get easily with no money down and good credit.
 
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