Economics of 997 market pricing

[Jetpilot]

It will be a long time before we see sales volumes the way they were from 2003-2008. We are living in a different time now. In 2005, peoples income savings were at 5% across the board- today, it is -2%. Unemployment, risk of inflation and credit issues will still linger for the near term. Even for the "upper middle class, upper class" income brackets, spending is WAY DOWN - due to what we call "pucker factor".

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[ryem3]

Originally Posted by RickyN F355

i just bought an 06 c2 cab, 12K miles, all service history, no paint work...msrp was $94K. I paid $51. Prices are soft eveywhere and not getting better.

That was a pretty good deal. Keep in mind that a 60% residual on a 3 year leased car is about average. You are about there. That is also one of the typical prices that is really pretty difficult to achieve these days. MOST of those cars are in very short supply. If that was an '06 S, it would probably be quite a bit more expensive, which would be a sign that prices in that category have actually gone up in the past 6 months.

Originally Posted by yrralis1

In short --the price bottom of the 997 is very strong and that's where i speculate the prices will climb first.

Absolutely agree there! In a recession, the most affordable things appreciate first. That still argues to me that the '09's will continue to be subject to "year end clearances" and they will be hard to sell. The "affordable 997's" are great cars, current body design, and will be in some demand. Plus, once you hit an '07, price difference between the years is only about $5k, quite a statement on the yearly depreciation once you hit that range.

[Verde]

I just don't buy the trickle-up premise. The C4C's program is lowering prices to people who otherwise would not (and in many cases should not) be buying. As the program ends and net prices rise (either via reduced incentives or higher prices for remaining inventories), buyers do not become wealthier. They will simply stop buying. And the hokey comments about the delays in government rebates are just that. It's money in the bank for the dealers and is not much different from some of the corporate rebates that are paid to dealers at the end of the year.
Not until the economy improves to the point that people feel safer spending discretionary dollars will there be increased sales without incentives, and/or at higher price points.
Other than at the margin, as a prior post notes, at the low-end of the Porsche scale, does any of this matter. If at all. The stock markets are anticipating a recovery that has not yet arrived. Employment has not picked up (though unemployment has slowed a bit) and pay scales are almost deflationary. Prices for pre-owned Porsche's are not about to kick up much other than flushing out the final bottom feeding, and the near-term business outlook for Porsche remains dismal.
I'm not an economist (though my son is), and don't as much share the social engineering worries of others. But I think we all see that the country's economy has been left in shambles, and it's going to take a long time to achieve a meaningful recovery. Until then, high-end discretionary's are going to be sucking air. In that context, I am very thankful that VW has added financial stability to Porsche.

[slocumda]

With the statement "For new cars, Porsche can control the supply and tailor it to the demand..." in mind, would anyone agree that car manufacturers still need to sell new cars in order to stay in business and pay for overhead expenses at a minimum. Doesn't that give them an incentive to make new car price attractive? Deep pockets are one thing but staying alive and continuing to improve product are paramount. Holding back on inventory can be self defeating at some point. Doug

[yrralis1]

Originally Posted by Verde

I just don't buy the trickle-up premise. The C4C's program is lowering prices to people who otherwise would not (and in many cases should not) be buying. As the program ends and net prices rise (either via reduced incentives or higher prices for remaining inventories), buyers do not become wealthier. They will simply stop buying. And the hokey comments about the delays in government rebates are just that. It's money in the bank for the dealers and is not much different from some of the corporate rebates that are paid to dealers at the end of the year.
Not until the economy improves to the point that people feel safer spending discretionary dollars will there be increased sales without incentives, and/or at higher price points.
Other than at the margin, as a prior post notes, at the low-end of the Porsche scale, does any of this matter. If at all. The stock markets are anticipating a recovery that has not yet arrived. Employment has not picked up (though unemployment has slowed a bit) and pay scales are almost deflationary. Prices for pre-owned Porsche's are not about to kick up much other than flushing out the final bottom feeding, and the near-term business outlook for Porsche remains dismal.
I'm not an economist (though my son is), and don't as much share the social engineering worries of others. But I think we all see that the country's economy has been left in shambles, and it's going to take a long time to achieve a meaningful recovery. Until then, high-end discretionary's are going to be sucking air. In that context, I am very thankful that VW has added financial stability to Porsche.

I agree that those with the clunkers still can't afford the cars . In that same breath the C4C program is creating a price bubble for the low end (Honda . Ford. etc.. and any lower priced cars) . Even though its can be viewed as an artificial price bubble in many ways all those clunkers have been replaced with new cars and the owners will remain ina perpetual state of debt .

Look at the used Porsche market today . Do you remember all the posts of peple getting great deals ? Notice taht the best deals are with new Porsches recently and even though there are good deals still on used Porsches they have lessened. The cars with desireable options are harder to find . One can look on auto trader and see 40 cars for sale and only find a few that he would consider and they are already not as cheap as they were.

Six months ago everything was on sale. Stocks. real estate, cars you name it . In fact Ford stock was $2 and now it's $8 and the stock market has gone up over 2K points closing above 9500 . Back then new Porsches were NOT selling because 8 percent discounts simply wasn't enough but CPO was thriving.

Now CPO is strengthening . Try and find a 997 under 45K and its difficult. That bottom is verry strong.

Lastly -
1) This is still time time to buy a NEW Porsche .
2) There are still used cars but it is becoming harder and will become even more tough .

I speculate that the cars that we own will become very strong in used value within the next 6 -12 months . It will then be a sellers market.
I do not think it is sustainable either.

Now is the time to buy .. soon will be the time to sell for those hoping to get the most for the car which they own and the window of time is the toughest part to guess.

[yrralis1]

Originally Posted by Dutchie in NC

I agree with your first 2.5 statements/conclusions.

However, I disagree strongly as it relates to increasing prices in the used market. There were too many 996's/997's produced and those were bought with large bonuses, home equity, equity gains, etc. This has created massive (and unprecedented) supply for used 911's.

For prices to increase, demand needs to outstrip supply. I just can not come up with any scenario in the next year or two where we are going to see a market where demand for 911's is going to be larger than the demand we saw in the period (let's say) 2003-2008. Hence, prices will continue to decline, although I do not believe we will see the rapid declines that we have witnessed over the past year.

For new cars, Porsche can control the supply and tailor it to the demand... for used cars they can't... hence, unless demand goes up very rapidly from here, we won't see prices go up

The flaw in this reasoning is fusing the 996 and 997 market . Each model is very different in terms of resale value . One can especcially see this with the 993 .

My posts only focus on the 997 market.
One can not control the used car supply .. I agree .
But look at the used 997 in searches and notice that the cars with the most desireable options, low mile, and CPO are not as cheap .

That price bottom of 45K is unbreakable for a CPO 997S . In fact its strengthening and with this C4C program it just just got a nice uplifting breeze to strengthen even more.

[Dutchie in NC]

My statements still hold true for 997's only... 2005+ has seen huge production runs. I agree that there may be less desperate people out there that have to sell, but that doesn't mean you are going to be a non-depreciating asset... used cars go down in price every year... the amounts/% may change, but when I buy a 997 I will expect it to go down.

I do agree that inventory seems to be a bit low for a good 997 C2s... I do wonder if there is a summer effect here. Does anybody have an idea re this? I would expect a LOT of 2006 lease cars to come on the market soon.

Originally Posted by yrralis1

The flaw in this reasoning is fusing the 996 and 997 market . Each model is very different in terms of resale value . One can especcially see this with the 993 .

My posts only focus on the 997 market.
One can not control the used car supply .. I agree .
But look at the used 997 in searches and notice that the cars with the most desireable options, low mile, and CPO are not as cheap .

That price bottom of 45K is unbreakable for a CPO 997S . In fact its strengthening and with this C4C program it just just got a nice uplifting breeze to strengthen even more.

[ryem3]

On the lease cars, wouldn't we see '07's come on the market? Typical lease of 36 mo., '07's typically delivered in late '06? '06's already came off 36 mo. leases last year. My car was actually delivered in August '06, yep a 36 mo. lease car.

[NYCPCAR]

I was at a Mercedes dealership buying a car for my mom...biggest dealer in NJ...only(7) 09's of any model were left. Why? Mercedes actually wasn't shy about the programs..some were 25% off on a 63. Sales person said NOW nobody wants to pay anywhere close to MSRP for the new ones and they cant move the 2010's so people wait for the programs and they preowned market firms up.

I was close to buying an 09 C4S CAB but dealers here in NJ/NY wouldn't give me 20% of so I took my cash and went home. 2 cars I wanted, one had a scratch, still sit in the showrooms with sept upon us...That car will be there all throught the winter..just like a NEW 08 C4s Cab that sits there still after I made a 100k offer on a 115k back in the day...I just have to laugh..I should thank them.

Dealers in CA called me on sat and offered me 20% off..but the cars have key options missing and I couldn't bring myself to settle, even at 20%..so I will wait out until Jan and go convertible shopping again..we will see.

I agree that the 55k to 69K used market is strong and CPO market has gotten strong again. I sold my 06 C4S cab with 8700 miles on it for 67k and honestly...wish I had it back.

[pplace993]

Originally Posted by yrralis1

On another note but within the same subject --The 997 used maket has shown great price resillence . I have yet to see a 997 of any type CPO break 40K . Most well kept low mile cars are still priced above 50K .

The new cars are the ones which faced the discounts .

In short --the price bottom of the 997 is very strong and that's where i speculate the prices will climb first.

I thought that was the case until I came across an 05 C2 w/ 10k on the odo, options: PASM & 19in wheels, selling @ an asking price of 39k, at a Porsche dealership!!! WOW!!!

[yrralis1]

Originally Posted by NYCPCAR

I was at a Mercedes dealership buying a car for my mom...biggest dealer in NJ...only(7) 09's of any model were left. Why? Mercedes actually wasn't shy about the programs..some were 25% off on a 63. Sales person said NOW nobody wants to pay anywhere close to MSRP for the new ones and they cant move the 2010's so people wait for the programs and they preowned market firms up.

I was close to buying an 09 C4S CAB but dealers here in NJ/NY wouldn't give me 20% of so I took my cash and went home. 2 cars I wanted, one had a scratch, still sit in the showrooms with sept upon us...That car will be there all throught the winter..just like a NEW 08 C4s Cab that sits there still after I made a 100k offer on a 115k back in the day...I just have to laugh..I should thank them.

Dealers in CA called me on sat and offered me 20% off..but the cars have key options missing and I couldn't bring myself to settle, even at 20%..so I will wait out until Jan and go convertible shopping again..we will see.

I agree that the 55k to 69K used market is strong and CPO market has gotten strong again. I sold my 06 C4S cab with 8700 miles on it for 67k and honestly...wish I had it back.

Below the Porsche market lies the lesser cars . They just got a huge Turbo boost as they once faced lagging sales . Imagine if the cash for clunkers program gave 4500 over KBB on any trade in . Porsche dealership would be filled with customers and that;s what happened at Honda . That dealership was not only packed but the saleman I know is exhausted from selling cars even as late as 3AM he said.

The creates an even stronger price bubble bottom . How long it will sustain is anyones guess but my guess is that if CPO goes up and Porsche limits production on new cars then all Porsche prices will strengthen and the 20 percent deals will vanish .

This is the buying opportunity .
You sold yoir cab at a great price but its not typicaly as stong a sellers market (used) as it can become .

[yrralis1]

Originally Posted by pplace993

I thought that was the case until I came across an 05 C2 w/ 10k on the odo, options: PASM & 19in wheels, selling @ an asking price of 39k, at a Porsche dealership!!! WOW!!!

You never know the history behind the atrractive price . If it's not a CPO that would be the first thing to consider if its at a dealership but most are listing Cayman S cars at that price with those miles.

[Microbomb]

Originally Posted by pplace993

I thought that was the case until I came across an 05 C2 w/ 10k on the odo, options: PASM & 19in wheels, selling @ an asking price of 39k, at a Porsche dealership!!! WOW!!!

Where was this? I test drove a 05 C2 with 36k miles that was "sale" priced at 45k. It didn't have Bose or Chrono, just heated seats and NAV. Not sure if they would even take anything under 40k for it.