997Current model of the 911 C2, C2s, C4, C4S, Targa and Cabriolet Discussion. Sponsored ByHRE Wheels
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Over time many here have watched the market on both new and used Porsches . When the market is strong we often read posts by those who struggle to get a good price and visa versa .
There have been many threads discussing pricing in the moment much like a snapshop for the immediate shopper . There have been discussions about incentives , inventory, and when to shop but not much on how the larger picture of the how the econmy effects the how and why of buying the car.
On a personal level I was not even in the market to buy a car when I bought my 09 C2S but there does come a point where if the price is good enough one is faced with a more challenging decision .
Today I was at a Honda dealership with the Si facing a repair . While there I saw a salesman who I know and he looked exhausted . He explained that the cash for clunkers program has generated enormous sales volume . He works late and sold more cars than ever . In fact inventory on Hondas are low enough that as this cash for clunkers program ends the car prices have gone up .
Now there obviously aren't many folks who are driving up to Porsche dealerships with a clunker but I do wonder if this program took away some Porsche market share indirectly simply as it attracts buyers elsewhere. Perhaps a person ready to buy a Porsche bought a new Honda for his grandmother instead taking advantage of the huge govt rebate of the program and delaying his purchase .
Ultimately .. I see Porsche sales about to pick up . I still think this is the time to buy but when thse incentives end and the lower end cars are low on inventory pushing price up shoppers may climb the ladder upward into the higher priced segments . For instance if a Honda EX is sold at MSRP a used Cayenne will compete . The same will be the case at 997 levels and I speculate that the used Porsche will make the first price climb upward .
Hold on to those 997 Turbos
Hold on to those 997S cars .
I think they will go up in resale .
If you want to speculate the market as a function of economic influence this is the thread.
Any thoughts ?
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You raise some valid points. However, when considering that the 997 has been the most successful Porsche to date with over 100,000 units sold and 2006 being the biggest year ever for Porsche sales (coinciding with the largest mortgage equity withdrawal) coupled with the decline in people who can actually afford them I would say values will continue to drop in the used market. As for new, it's a slightly different story as Porsche will adjust inventory to meet demand and maintain its price levels. Currently Porsche has over-supply with slack demand which makes it the best time ever to buy if you can. I wasn't really shopping for a new car, but getting a car at 24% off MSRP with 1.9% (first week of July) made the deal compelling for me. I think this is a rare time in Porsche history and great time to buy one.
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You raise some valid points. However, when considering that the 997 has been the most successful Porsche to date with over 100,000 units sold and 2006 being the biggest year ever for Porsche sales (coinciding with the largest mortgage equity withdrawal) coupled with the decline in people who can actually afford them I would say values will continue to drop in the used market. As for new, it's a slightly different story as Porsche will adjust inventory to meet demand and maintain its price levels. Currently Porsche has over-supply with slack demand which makes it the best time ever to buy if you can. I wasn't really shopping for a new car, but getting a car at 24% off MSRP with 1.9% (first week of July) made the deal compelling for me. I think this is a rare time in Porsche history and great time to buy one.
Keep in mind that my speculation is pushing out into beginning 2010 . The cash for clunkers program had this major high volume Miami dealership low in inventory on the most common Hondas to the point where they can now charge near MSRP for a car . Someone walking in and seeing this might buy a BMW (or car in this category) for a discount . The BMW's will see more volume as Honda price climbs and eventually this will trickle its way to the high end . It will eventually make way to Porsche pricing.
If this cash for clunker program was designed in part to aid the auto industry the price climb will start at the lower end cars .
So yes I agree--this IS still the time to buy a Porsche but it can not last forever . The used market is still heading down but this will change and we can guess 5 months or 10 months or 1 year but no one knows .
As for Porsche affordability --there wil always be a buyer segment . Many who bought Turbos . Ferrari . Lambo or other high end car may bargain shop with a 997 or 997S . Above these 911 Porsches there is still the trickle down from the exotic car segment .
What can be more mass produced than cars like Honda or Ford ?
Do you realize that if a dealership sells 200 units via cash for clunkers that it's 200 X4500 = $900.000 that the govt owes the dealership. The inventory just flew out of dealerships who faced record sales as people turned in their old cars.
Switching gears -
Have you ever seen new Porsche cars refreshed selling anywhere from 10 -20 percent off MSRP?
I haven't.
Months ago Honda and Ford were giving cars away and now they are asking near MSRP as dealerships face a huge IOU from the govt and low inventory on popular cars.
As the lower cars prices get higher more will buy in the middle and then the top .
Seems a bit like this.
The economy is nowhere near full recovery. Buyers in this league fall into a couple of camps. For those looking at new cars, 20% discounts and 1.9% financing is enough to push people over the edge on a $100k car they probably could afford for MSRP. These have created the deals that are "impossible to resist"...Larry.... The reality is that Porsche is having a hell of a time selling luxury sports cars in a recession. Some of the dealers in my area have a LOT of '09's around. Heck, 2 months and the 2010's should roll in and that seems to be a very late model year start for Porsche. They've had to offer incentives to move cars. Hard to say they are making much money at those prices.
THe other camp I share with many others. Looking at the ideal target used car. Usually the end of a 3 or 4 year lease or ownership from the original owner who has taken the biggest hit in depreciation. This was a bit of a buyers' market, because as these cars went below $60k they are very reachable to a lot more people. AND a huge impact here is that financing for a used car in today's bank market it hard to get and very expensive. SO, while it is a buyer's market, it is only for the cash buyer. The result is that the '05's and '06's have vanished because they are the most accessable and are incredible values where prices have gone. Get much higher and most people need financing that is really hard to come by. Even the home equity loan of a few years ago to finance a car is gone. I think the economy has firmed a bit, which really brought buyers into the lower segment and soaked up all the good inventory. Pretty hard to get a good '05-'07 S at this point, I think.
In respect to new '09's, I think those deals may even get better. I was looking at a NJ dealer and they had like 20 '09 S's. Maybe because the are 6spd and everyone wants a PDK, I don't know. Didn't check. Bigger question is, will Porsche compromise more on price to move those cars or will they take the hard stance like they did on the '08's and have them sit on their lots for months. Given the recent $10k "incentive" money and the 1.9% financing, I think they're more inclined to try to move them this time around. Porsche isn't alone, I've seen plenty of Mercedes AMG's advertised at 20% off sticker for '09's. But they are also selling 2010's already...
__________________ RyeM3 '07 997S - Arctic Silver on Black - Full leather, adaptive sport seats, sport chrono, nav, Bose, 997 TT wheels, TechArt spoiler and rockers
I'm not so optimistic. Decreased production in Germany will help firm up prices in the used market, but there is quite a glut of cars coming off lease as well as people trading or selling before the value tanks completely. For example, Excellence pegs a "low" 04 996 Turbo S at only 47K. That's depreciation on a colossal scale. Granted that a 997 has some real advantages over any 996, but the used market is far more price than detail oriented, and so it's not unreasonable that someone shopping an 05 997 will also wander over to a 996 Turbo for similar money. This expands the used car pool beyond the 997.
This is STILL the time to buy a Porsche . Yet when Porsche production becomes more limited and the overall industry has climbed these "great deals" will lessen.
At the lower end (Honda , Ford , acura GM, etc) so many cars were sold that many dealerships are already owed so much money that they may even turn customers away. Even if they want to sell the car inventory is so low from the record sales that they may not have the car . A Honda Accord LX can now get almost MSRP and two months ago --no way.
At first glance one might think this does not apply to Porsche but when cars like Ford, Honda, Acura, etc have low inventory and their prices climb it has to tricle up.
The billions of dollars spent into this program has already stimulated sales low end and thse "great deals" with high end are still present but can not continue long term.
The whole thing is disgusting as it's yet another sign of Obama's socialist agenda.
It's not a poltical debate but how to speculate the Porsche market and pick the best time to buy or sell ones car.
I think this is the buy opportunity . Most here agree .
I think it will be limited in time . Opinions vary on this .
I think future prices will climb (new and used ) - Opinions vary on taht too.
I think the cash for clunkers has an impact on the entire industry beginning with lower end cars . Regardless of whether one likes or dislikes the program he still faces buying and selling his car .
On another note but within the same subject --The 997 used maket has shown great price resillence . I have yet to see a 997 of any type CPO break 40K . Most well kept low mile cars are still priced above 50K .
The new cars are the ones which faced the discounts .
In short --the price bottom of the 997 is very strong and that's where i speculate the prices will climb first.
I agree with your first 2.5 statements/conclusions.
However, I disagree strongly as it relates to increasing prices in the used market. There were too many 996's/997's produced and those were bought with large bonuses, home equity, equity gains, etc. This has created massive (and unprecedented) supply for used 911's.
For prices to increase, demand needs to outstrip supply. I just can not come up with any scenario in the next year or two where we are going to see a market where demand for 911's is going to be larger than the demand we saw in the period (let's say) 2003-2008. Hence, prices will continue to decline, although I do not believe we will see the rapid declines that we have witnessed over the past year.
For new cars, Porsche can control the supply and tailor it to the demand... for used cars they can't... hence, unless demand goes up very rapidly from here, we won't see prices go up
Quote:
Originally Posted by yrralis1
It's not a poltical debate but how to speculate the Porsche market and pick the best time to buy or sell ones car.
I think this is the buy opportunity . Most here agree .
I think it will be limited in time . Opinions vary on this .
I think future prices will climb (new and used ) - Opinions vary on taht too.
I think the cash for clunkers has an impact on the entire industry beginning with lower end cars . Regardless of whether one likes or dislikes the program he still faces buying and selling his car .
i just bought an 06 c2 cab, 12K miles, all service history, no paint work...msrp was $94K. I paid $51. Prices are soft eveywhere and not getting better.
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