...I have a dealer with a GT3 on the lot, new, 107+k msrp and they are considering 100k. I think they would for sure do 101-102k. So it seems maybe the days of paying MSRP are nearing an end?

Not telling who, I dont want someone else going in and putting a bid for 102. ;-)

 

Same story here in the Bay Area. Shopped a number of dealers and looked at a bunch of cars a few weeks ago. When I showed some interest they offered them below MSRP, but not as steep a discount as you are talking about.

Interestingly, many local dealers have Sept. GT3 build dates available. I thought that when they began building 997's the GT3 production would be over, seems not to be the case. I would think that when those cars show up, sitting next to 997's at the dealership, it'll be the best time to make a deal on a GT3.

 

fwiw, here's my opinion of what's going to happen to the market.

right now most dealers have figured out the above-MSRP days are well over (not all though - some dealer in AZ is still looking for $5K or $10K over on a USED GT3 - whatever). many dealers are negotiating below MSRP.

the problem is that there's SO much margin in these cars (figure 12%+) that the dealers have a LOT of room to move if things get iffy.

and things are likely to get iffy now that (a) the pent-up demand is fully served; (b) most dealers are now taking their allocations for stock (i'm sure PCNA is lording their 997 allocations over them "sure, you can skip this GT3, but it'll probably cost you a few 997s" blah blah blah); and (c) the production increase from 750 to 900 or 950 isn't going to help ANYBODY given (a) and (b).

given all that, i expect that in a few more months we'll be seeing new GT3s moving for a couple thousand over invoice - still a nice profit, but they'll be more liability than asset soon. so with most new cars going for mid-90s, the used cars will be going mid-to-high 80s.

at the end of the year, the dealers will dump whatever's left at invoice (low 90s). used cars will drop to the low 80s.

so my argument is that if you pay sticker today - say 105 - you're likely to see nearly 25K in depreciation by 12/31/04. better to pay 95 now and if you're lucky you'll only see 12K in depreciation in six months.

once production is completed they'll level out in the high 70s - low 80s and then slowly (relatively) and steadily depreciate over time.

i know many folks don't care about depreciation, but for those of us who are very very sick people and feel the need to flip our toy cars every 12-24 months, we have to do this math .

just one man's opinion.

doody.

 

If you wanna see depreciation, buy a new '05 997 and keep it for 3 years...

 

i know many folks don't care about depreciation, but for those of us who are very very sick people and feel the need to flip our toy cars every 12-24 months, we have to do this math .


Who can hold onto a car that long???

 

mr doody --

good analysis, but i bought my last new GT3 in November, 2003 for 96 on a 105 car. they were soft back then if you worked hard enough.

great car as it is, there are fewer enthusiats than cars built. the cars are so solid, buying a used miler is the best way to go right now.

 

Looks like Watt is about to BUY another GT3 -- he's trashing the current market value of GT3's.

Wattster, I thought the last GT3 you bought was used (not new), you paid more than 95 and it had a salvage title.

You are the king of market manipulation and my HERO!

 

Yes siree...997 bastard child of the 996!!!!

 

You wanna talk depreciation look no further than your own monstosity the Cayenne. When I was shopping for a SUV I looked at the Cay and frankly it was overpriced , underpowered, way under tired, and generally underbuilt compared to the Toureg. C&D Mag said it best in a comparo of the two. "The Toureg wants to be your friend, the cayenne simply wants to take your money and laugh all the way to the bank. I saw an interesting article about someone wanting to trade in a 03 Cayenne on a 04 FX. The Infiniti Pre Owned SM called around to his regular sources about what it was worth , is anyone in the mkt hungry for one, what does the local Porsche dealer ask for the same model. The answer in short was a resounding "NO" as in nobody wanted it incl the P-Car dealer unless it was insanely discounted. That is scary stuff. I have an FX 45 and it will beat any SUV on the road except the Cay TT , of course my FX was only $47K and the cay was $94K. LOL Well I went back to Porsche to give the Cay TT one more chance since the X5 4.6 was to heavyand too slow, and to my surprise the saleshole pulled me aside and told me if I bought the one they had on the lot today ,he would give it to me for $72K out the door. MSRP was $94K on this one for some reason. I drove it ended up w/ the FX 45 anyway cuz it is pimp and will easily walk all over the cayenne.
Given that why is Porsche coming out w/ a V-6? I dunno I love Porsche cars but it seems like they have seriously lost their way and alienating their loyal fan base. Whats next a pick up truck or a nice 4 dr sedan for the over 60 y/o sans a belt early bird golf playing crowd. I really fear for you guys and the company's future.

 

I guess both you and C&D smoke too much crack...I own a Cayenne S and I have yet to see ANY SUV compare...Underpowered at 340 HP...Don't think so. Toureg shares many parts, but NOT the motor, drivetrain, brakes and suspension tuning... Not minor items...You get what you pay for!!!!

 

All I know is new GT3s are selling essentially at MSRP in a matter of days here, even ones with PCCB. 2 just went out last week locally. Don't believe it? Call Hoehn and verify for yourself. 760 438 4434. The other dealer here is selling everything they have too. The only ones that really seem to sit are the ones with $15K + in options (those are about guaranteed to depreciate by the value of the options as soon as you drive off the lot).

Something sounds fishy with the mystery dealers selling cars for $8K under MSRP. It just doesn't make sense - dealers talk to one another, and it would be worth it just to trade the car to a market that is still hot for GT3s. Maybe the cars have paintwork or RMS leaks or some other issue? Paintwork happens at dealers all the time, and they don't have to disclose. Happened to my friend with his Jag. Out of state buyers are perfect targets for that too.

If the market for GT3s is going to tank that bad, to the point of a $105K car being worth $80K by 12/04, Porsche should just give up and go out of business. 997s etc are going to be a dime a dozen after the "first kid on the block" factor wears off.

But I just don't think it's going to tank like that. It may even tighten up, as demand seems to be building if anything here.

 

" I drove it ended up w/ the FX 45 anyway cuz it is pimp and will easily walk all over the cayenne."

If you want the bar none best SUV "any" car company offers in terms of performance, you are left with zero choice besides the TT Cayenne - unless money is a problem. I've enjoyed playing with many a sports car in ours including an M5 in the twisties and straights. In a straight line from appx 20 mph on, I even pissed off a 360 Spyder poseur in it.

"Something sounds fishy with the mystery dealers selling cars for $8K under MSRP."

The only "fishy" part about it is that in S. Cal they don't have to discount whereas Scott is in the N.E. where they always discount.

 

Ben, if that's true tell me why they wouldn't ship it to CA for $1K, on the dealer car carrier, sell it for $8K more, and split the net $7K between dealers? Are dealers really that stupid? Do we know the market better than them? Doubt it. I think there's something fishy.

 

Peter,

I have 2 dealers with 2 different cars willing to go about $8k under MSRP, which is still $4-5k profit. So I dont think there's anything fishy, I think GT3 prices are just dipping as demand decreases... at least away from the West Coast..

 

Scott, care to share the names/numbers of those dealers? I gave info to verify my data. If GT3 prices are dipping as you say, it won't impact you, because all dealers will match those deals.