Quote:
Originally Posted by changster
(Post 4286454)
I just wanted to get your thoughts whether you think the 997.2 GT3 will depreciate a lot after the Cayman GT4 has come out. They are similar cars, and maybe the GT4 will be even a better driver's car? Obviously the GT4 is still under powered but it's still very close.
I am about to buy a 997.2 GT3 in immaculate condition but am a little worried about massive depreciation. I have to pay a premium for this GT3.
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Treating this as a supply/demand problem, I see no real increase in supply, but a significant decline in demand, so I conclude prices will come down.
On the supply side, I am guessing that GT3 owners will not be inclined to sell their GT3's for a GT4. Forum chatter seems to support this. The exceptions may be those to whom lap times are really important, but by an large, I suspect at least early on the GT4 won't be the reason people get out of their GT3's. I think their thinking has a lot to do with GT3 owner satisfaction, perceived prestige of owning a 911, some will argue racing heritage, and inertia (why sell what I love?).
The problem for GT3 resale, in my view, will be on the demand side assuming Porsche makes more than just a few GT4's, which indications are that it will.
You have to figure that the GT4 will at least equal if not meaningfully outperform the 997 GT3. Porsche has already hinted as much. The GT4 is arguably a very important branding statement for Porsche--they need to, and you know they will--get it right. The Cayman is obviously the better platform for performance and Porsche will be able to get more out of it for less. Walter Rohrl already calls the GT4 the "perfect handling car" and other than big tracks says he prefers the GT4 over the (presumably he was talking about the 991) GT3. the press is already salivating over the car. In short, I think it is easy to predict that the car magazines will treat this car akin to the second coming of Jesus and everyone will want one. Finally, in the well-watched EVO interview, AP specifically suggests the GT4 as an alternative for the buyer considering a used GT3. And don't you think that Porsche has done some market research here? AP's comment suggest to me that Porsche targeted this car squarely at the used GT3 buyer, and at the same time looking to attract that core brand buyer for whom the 991 GT3 is out of reach. Indeed, as I think about the GT4, with the MT, the GT3 brakes and suspension, and most importantly its pricing, is it not at least arguable that the GT4 is really a spiritual 997.3? I would not be at all surprised, and frankly expect that the GT4 will be to the GT3 997.2, what the 997.2 was to the GT3 997.1.
Now as one of those would be GT3 buyers, apart from the performance comparisons, I have the increasingly difficult task of finding and buying an aging GT3 with low miles that hasn't been abused or run hard (with a likely premium), or accepting the fact that the car has miles and/or has been run hard and accept the risk. OR, I can buy a new GT4, with its better engine layout, updated technology, updated interior, spec to my tastes, full warranty, with
at least the same, if not superior performance for the same or less money.
And in 2-3 years when the GT4 (and the 991 GT3) hits the used market and the 997GT3 is nearly a 10 year old car....
In short, to think that the 997 GT3's are going to hold the kind of value they enjoy today is, IMHO, not realistic. There will be those that have to have a 911, Metzger engine and whatever, and partly because of this I am sure the 3 will always have relatively strong residuals for its age and mileage, and over the long term at least reasonably collectible, but the downward pressure of age, technology, and "new" over the next 10 years is IMHO going to have their inevitable effect on resale.
Also, regardless of the introduction of the GT4, when you say you are going to have to pay a premium for your extra clean GT3, you should realize that if you plan to put miles on the car and particularly if you are going to track an untracked car, the next buyer won't be paying you that premium. In short, I think you are setting yourself up for a pretty good hit akin to new car ownership.
Now having said that, would I want a 997.3 GT3 in pristine condition? You bet! And I will be pissing myself with envy if you buy it. If you want it and can afford it then I would say hell yes buy it as you only live once, but if resale
has to be an important part of the equation I would have to think twice.
Of course, if you buy a GT4 instead (or any new or pristine used car), will you not be looking at typical new car depreciation? That can be pretty brutal too although I suspect less so for any GT car. Regardless, I am on the list for the GT4 and mulling that concern myself.
Anyway, I hope this helps. Good luck and let us know what you decide.