The total supply of CGTs is now closer to total demand (by 250 units). It doesn't matter if demand is "hot", or not, if the supply matches whatever the demand happens to be. Balance is the key.

The MY06 air-bag technical snafu caused a problem/oppportunity that Porsche solved by pulling some cars forward (causing a short-term USA-MY05 over-supply) and canceling others (USA-MY06).

There is always a feedback delay when observing the sell-through of any market item. After a small (relatively) delay, Porsche has acted to balance demand with supply. Their task was made much more difficult by having to navigate the USA-DOT regulation changes made after Porsche's design decisions had already been made.

 

Actually I think it was their change in status, rather than a change in the regulations which caused the problem.

I understand prior to the introduction of the Cayenne they could skirt around the regulations as a "small" manufacturer. The introduction of the Cayenne, and large increase in volume, purportedly closed of that loophole to them.

Based upon my monitoring and observations there is still quite an inbalance out there in the marketplace. There seems to be too many cars available at too many dealers.

Eventually it will be solved in the classic ways, supply and/or price. Since the supply is fixed (and currently greater than demand) it would appear that the price is elastic. Pricing is soft and there is no current dynamic to force an increase.

Does anyone know if production is continuing to Dec 05 (for MY05)?

 

It's my understanding that August is that last possible manufacturing date before the air-bag cut-off for USA-bound cars.

AFAIK, the supply for the USA market is not as fixed as one might assume. According to my dealer, PCNA is investigating all booked dealer orders. If a booked order cannot be connected to a plausible buyer, PCNA may cancel that dealer order at their option.

One could say that the supply is temporarily greater than spot demand (too many cars TODAY). But, the supply will soon be completely exhausted forever. I expect an "S"-curve in supply/demand ratio over the next few months based on this simple fact. Prices that are now apparently elastic may turn quite inelastic after a few months time.

Buyers for these cars don't all make their buying decisions at the same instant. Financial fortunes change, personal desires change, some prospects are slower to be aware of such a car as the Carrera GT than the early adopters.

There are plenty of customers that have been "thinking about" such a car for a long time, but have declined to act for some reason or other. These customers come out of hibernation on their own schedule. There is a constant, however small, stream of "recent" prospects willing to act tomorrow.

When the temporary glut of cars imported before the DOT deadline is assimilated, there will still be a constant, small, new demand for the car with no supply able to fill it. Prices will be the opposite of elastic when this time arrives. The only question in my mind is "when?", not "if?".

 

Well said. If you plan to keep the car for 2 years or more, you will be okay (as in paying reasonable depreciation). If you can afford one, you shouldn't be bent out of shape if you lose $100K to own one for a while. That's the cost of the hobby...

And for those who have an opportunity to buy one (especially at sub-$400K), you are getting perhaps the best sports car every produced. I spent the last 3 days driving my CGT on the back roads, and last week on the track. It truely is one of greatest sports cars you can buy today, and will shame some real race-prepared cars on the track.

 

Obviously this is all speculation on our part but what do you guys think will happen beyond 2006 or 2007. When all the new cars are gone and the GT is only on the used market will the car continue to depreciate hard or will it level off and even begin to appreciate? I want to know because it will be at least that long before I can afford one. I am just hoping they don't go through the roof once the new ones are all gone.

 

buddy, by early 2007, the early CGT's will be selling in the range of 225-275K. Insurance, replacement parts and the cost of general maintaince will keep this car out of the hands of most people.

 

I don't think used CGTs will go through the roof. As CJV said above, used CGTs will be expensive beyond the purchase price, thereby limiting their upside potential.

However, if one wants a new CGT in a few months, I don't think discounts will be any better than today.

 

Hey, I may be able to swing that in 2007! Something
to look forward to anyway!

 

chad,
very easy to throw a number out there isn't it? guess we'll see then. Insurance, replacement parts and the cost of general maintaince will keep this car out of the hands of most people. it is a car out of most people's hand since beginning. btw, in 2007 100% of the CGTs in the states will be still covered by warranty.

 

I don't think they will tank that fast. They have a decent warranty and parts supplies, and maintenance is cheaper than a Ferrari.

The car is already exclusive - most people cannot afford them now and some are paying $400K+ to own one.

Has anybody tracked what the 959 values did over time? I think they are still well over $200K now (and you can't even get proper tires for them anymore).

 

959 prices are ALL over the place -- mainly due to the fact that it is very difficult to get a true picture of their condition. Many sat in Japan for more than a decade and were hardy driven. These cars can command a high price since they have less than 6,000 total vehicle miles, but it often takes a LOT of $ to actually get them in working order because the car HATES to sit and rot. I spent the better part of two years (much of that waiting for parts) with help from Andial getting my car in good shape -- and it was already in very good 959 shape -- but now that it is fully restored it feels like every other Porsche -- bullet proof. Honestly -- a daily driver.

Add to any price at least 50k if you want to bring it stateside and drive it legally and you end up with cars that can appear to cost less than 200k but in actuality will ALWAYS cost you closer to 300k to turn it into what you want it to be.

Of course, you can always go the "transformation" route and get a car from someone like Canepa, but in that case you are driving something quite different than the original. For most Porsches, I think modifying them is great, but for a 959 I think one should stick to Porsche factory original as much as possible.

BTW -- you CAN get the tires NEW. You just have to know who to ask and how.

BUT -- as with everything 959, you may have to wait months for them.

 

deanger, I hear you on the 959 refreshing. Those prices are about what I thought. There is one here locally that I see at the dealership from time to time. Of course, it sat around most of its life, so it needs a ton of work. I also heard that getting a new bumper is astronomically expensive now.

 

I've actually read that Porsche has pretty much fixed the clutch issue on later models ie MY05s, early models still suffer from the clutch issue.....

 

There was never any "Clutch Issue" to solve it just takes people getting use to a clutch and flywheel that engage super quickly. Most of the owners on this site have no problems with the Clutch at all.

Mike,

Now that you have had the GT for a while give us some driving impressions. Must be awesome! Once I get the RED BEAST back maybe I will make a trip to Cincy and we can hang out.

 

I love 959s, but I think I would go F40 or maybe even one of those mid 90s Bugati EB1100 or whatever model they were for the 959 price range. I heard those Bugatis were in the mid 200s if you can find one. I also think I would have to consider an F60 if I had close to a half million to spend on a 2 seater. What about those racey Jags? Aren't they now around $ 300K?

The Porsches are definitely the drivers cars, but my recent dabble into the Italians has changed my thought process about Italians. I just put 1,500 miles on my Diablo in about three weeks. I took it on many little quick 1 hour jaunts and short out of town 150 mil round trip stuff while my 04 TT cabriolet was getting a makeover.

For $ 160,000, I think the 2001 Diablo 6.0 is an unreal bargain. Fun as hell to drive and the attention is really too much at times. The CGT may beat it on the track, but this car gets my heart racing like nothing else I have driven and it costs the same as my TT cabriolet.